Elections 2011: What’s next for… the SNP?

First in a series of articles about what happens next following the 2011 elections

Political thesauruses up and down will have been worn out today as people look for words to fully describe the scale of the SNP’s victory. In spite of all recent polls even the most optimistic supporter could not possibly have predicted that the SNP would win an outright majority, a feat which seemed impossible under Holyrood’s voting system.

Talk of Scotland’s political landscape being changed is legitimate and it’s understandable that SNP supporters, workers and politicians will want to celebrate. However once the elation turns back to the mundane task of actually governing there remains numerous challenges for the SNP. The most obvious is the one Barack Obama has suffered from.

Even the politically disinterested – it’s worth remembering that turnout was only a little over 50% - will be aware of the SNP’s victory and so look to them to deliver. In other words there will be a huge and optimistic belief about what lies ahead, expectations which are often difficult to actually achieve.

The size of victory – and the majority it brings – means that the SNP are now very much responsible; in 2016 there will be no-one to hide behind if the country faces any problems. This will be particularly true if this momentum carries on into next year’s council elections allowing the SNP to run more local authorities across Scotland, possibly even as a majority party.

So what can and will the new SNP government do and what opportunities and challenges will this present? Well obviously a council tax freeze has to happen, although surely that will inevitably lead to complaints as some parts of public services face spending freezes or cuts.

Local Income Tax must now seriously be on the table too. For this to work there has to be winners – some people pay less – but this means there have to be losers too whether in terms of less public finance available or some people paying more. This may be the correct course of action but will not be popular with some.

The previously rejected alcohol proposals will also be back on the table, certainly minimum pricing if not banning off-sales to under-21s too. Again these may be worthy plans but will not be without their critics.

And lastly, the independence referendum which we will certainly be going to polling stations to decide upon. If the vote goes for independence then this is the SNP’s dream but the worry is what happens if it doesn’t. They would then face going into 2016 after losing the vote and being in government for 9 years, surely not a good combination. 

In fact the referendum makes for an interesting judgement call from the SNP. The negative-positive mix referred to above in terms of possible policies means it’s debateable some of them will actually happen for fear they scupper support for independence.

Of course these points do perhaps focus on the negative; the flipside is that as well as the win being a tremendous achievement the very reason for the points above is that the SNP are now in a position to do everything they want. And if they have got that programme for government correct presumably it could even enhance their support, particularly before a referendum.

One final factor worth considering is the First Minister’s future. He will obviously stick around to see the referendum but depending on the result what might he do after that? If polls suggest another SNP victory he would surely stay for this and then hand over to Nicola Sturgeon. But if not could go sooner?

President Obama’s fortunes have turned in recent times because of Osama Bin Laden and it may that this one action will reverse his falling opinion polls. He faced unpopularity simply because the burden of expectation on him could never have been fully met.

The challenge the SNP government now face is to avoid this. So for now it’s still time for Alex Salmond and his team to celebrate before attempting to deliver. One way or another the next five years will make for interesting times.