Every election tends to have a defining moment or issue; it’s telling that in this year’s Holyrood race the closest we’ve come to this are opinion polls.
Opinion polls are obviously important – not least to journalists and political anoraks – in that they provide a certain barometer of how the race is going.
It is actually a little depressing however if they become the major story themselves. However the lack of substantive policy ideas in this race have brought polls to the fore.
Polls themselves are, like the wind, subject to change. Going back to earlier this year the clear indication was that Labour would not just win but do so easily.
Fast forward to this past week and suddenly this has all changed, now it is the SNP that polls suggest will not only win but do so with some ease.
In each instance all parties will act the same; criticise the polls and their methodologies if they’re behind, support the polls’ results if they’re ahead.
But what do polls really tell us? They give us a certain feel for how a small section of the country (albeit selected in a way to represent the country-at-large) are thinking.
There are however numerous nuances to this. For instance a poll may say that one party is ahead or that another is failing; what it doesn’t always say is the likelihood of those people voting.
Polls can also be skewed towards the person or party that commissions them; for example Labour are hardly likely to release their poll results if they show an SNP victory and vice versa.
But as mentioned above the most depressing aspect of this race has been the way that it is reporting the polls which has been the biggest story of the campaign.
In a race which can actually excite and engage the population the polls would merely be a side dish to the main course, that of substantive policy announcements which chime with the public’s wishes and demands.
Instead – and for numerous reasons – we have had a fairly vacuous campaign featuring occasional policy, celebrity endorsements and precious little else.
The fact though is that the public have been mostly unmoved; the turnout at next month’s elections will surely prove this when it is little more than 50%.
It’s getting to the stage where we’d be just as well making the opinion polls the actual election – there may end up being little difference in the numbers taking part in each of them anyway.
2 comments:
Good points Bob.
I'd disagree though and suggest that the SNP manifesto launch was the defining moment of the campaign, particularly coming off the back of Labour's stalled effort. The manifesto is watertight, LIT/independence were quiety demoted/removed and a 5 year Coucil Tax freeze blew the opposition out the water.
The polling results then followed suit and are what the politicos now talk about but only because Labour, Lib Dems and Tories seem to be out of ideas.
So yes, it s depressing that polling is dominating the debate but, for me, it's the SNP manifesto rather than polls themselves that is to blame.
Jeff,
Think that's a fair point about the 5-year CT freeze.
Whether or not it's affordable in the long run is another matter but it's definitely been the standout policy of the campaign and probably created a momentum.
Given the criticism all parties have had about the affordability of their pledges it's interesting if the eventual winner will just make themselves a hostage to fortune though.
Another post coming up on that I think.
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